Mike's thesis covers research completed in Jun 2011. Since this time he has continued to work, as a Visiting Fellow, on issues relating to the governance of risk with the Centre for Business Performance at Cranfield. His focus integrates the disciplines of performance management and risk management. This research is addressing a range of specific issues.
The emphasis in safety science is on determining why things go wrong. This in itself does not help us prevent the next failure. My research looks to take methods and tools that rely on hindsight and examine whether they have any value in generating foresight.
The current focus of my research has been to take Barry Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory and to see its utility to foresight. Diagram 1 shows the original model and diagram 2 shows it re-imagined as a tool to promote foresight. The key issues that come out of this research focus on preventing failure, preparing to react to failure and how we learn from failure. While these might seem straightforward the actual issues are not.
Under 'prevent' the issue is how can we prevent that which we can't imagine will happen.
Under 'prepare' how can we prepare for all the possible scenarios that might befall us.
Under 'learning' what lessons can we take from the plethora that exist.
Please go to the separate tab for details of this research effort